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If only it were that easy. It seemz like every time there is some good news you haveto admit, there’s been more of it lately we get hit with another dose of realith just a day later. And the reality is stillp not good. There are undoubtedly some data suggestinb that economic conditions ifnothing else, bottomed out. One economis used this metaphor: If the economy were a persob falling down anelevator shaft, the free-fall has slowedf down a bit. Ouch. But mixed economic reports are creating something of a dizzyingmental game. My psyche just can’t handled the yo-yo trajectory of the news lately.
Just when you thin it is safe to come from behind yourbunkerf — err, desk — some government economic statistic agency has to go and put out a reporgt dashing our hopes. Governmen t bureaucrats love todo that. Ever invite one to a party? Course not. They stand in the corner all nighrt sipping a Tom Collins and trying to interest your guestx in chitchat about Exce l spreadsheets and the I was pretty exited earlier this montbh when the stock market had posterd quite afew gains. Then a report on retaiol sales in April was worsthan expected. The stock market fell back Don’t even get me started on home salew reports. Another day, another report.
On our Web site one day in May, we had two conflictinh headlines about the residential real estate They were from two different reports measuring twodifferenr things, but their discrepancies sure didn’t help me understandr the market any Who can keep the Case-Shillers, the the existing-home sales or the new-home salesx reports straight? The same goes for unemployment. In any givenn month, we get no fewer than threwe unemployment reports. BLS — that’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics — issues separate figures for Maryland, Virginia and D.C. Then it issuee yet another figure forthe region.
Both figuress lag behind the national number, so most people end up comparing apples-to-oranges when they try to talk intelligently at networking If you need something intelligentto say, just repeat that employment is a lagginvg indicator. This recovery, at leasrt in the beginning, is likely to be a one. In January 2008, our former Mike Mills, used this space to lamengt the delay in officially declaring the recession that we all knewwas “We want our recession and we want it Mills wrote. But even in the face of mounting evidence of a President Bush refused to recognize how poor theeconomgy was. Why? Psychology. Both W and his dad took the same Don’t ask, don’t tell.
Like any politician, they knew therde would be no escaping a downturj once the leader of the free worldacknowledgeds it. W didn’t use the R word untikl after the National Bureau ofEconomic Research, a nonprofit economists groupp in Cambridge, Mass., said in December that the recession had actuallg started a year That was nearly a month after the November election. Then there’s President Barackm Obama. Notice how positive his tone has been abou tthe economy, mere months after takinfg office amid the worst economic crisi s since the Great Depression?
News came May 26 that one leading indicator, consumer confidence, soared in May to its highesy point since September, and we all know what happened in the dark days of September. If that’s not a psychological boost, I don’t know what is. So how do we keep it going ? We want our recovery and we wantit now. All togetherr now: I think we can. I think we can. It’s wortuh giving it a try.
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